Plunge Protection Team - November 21, 2008
Ever wonder why the market drops 500 points one day and then rallies 500 points the next? How about when the market shoots up in the last hour of trading on rumors of a new Treasury Secretary? There is definitely something that smells like market manipulations.
While we can't prove some of these things, we get highly suspicious. Those of us using market timing strategies get very frustrated. Right now, we are avoiding these strategies and suggest that you follow suit.
The risks are simply too high. You study the markets, make good decisions and some bonehead official blows all your work with some silly rumor or piece of news. The bottom line is this: don't try to time this market. We started getting very suspicious in September when the credit markets fell apart. It appears that the government is using every tool, every dollar and every trick in the book to move these markets in their direction. The next time the market collapses and someone announces that someone like Fred Flintstone is going to drop dollars from heaven spurring a late day 1000 point rally, just remember, "I told you so."
Where is the Bottom? - November 20, 2008
How low can it go? Where is the bottom? All year long we have been projecting an ugly stock market. After some rolling up and down all year long, we finally saw a severe drop in September. The collapse of Lehman Brothers touched off an awful October where commerce basically stopped.
Today, the S&P 500 is at levels not seen since April 1997. In just a few months, eleven and a half years of stock market wealth is, well, poof, history, gone, evaporated. The amount of panic in the air is almost dizzying and leaves us financial advisor types just wandering around wondering what happened.
Fortunately we have survived. Not only have we survived but we have done very, very well. All three of our model portfolios are in positive territory for past year. Our aggressive model is up almost 20%. Imagine, for the market to catch up to our aggressive model, the market needs to go up an eye-popping 140%.
We have had to be very patient in our investing. When you are striving for absolute returns you are striving for a positive return each year. Because we are up for the year that means we have done what we were hired to do. If it slips then we have violated the principles of absolute return investing.
Market timing strategies that are also appropriate for active portfolio management need to be managed very carefully in this environment. It is very easy to get swayed one way or the other and get clobbered. Please, don't try market timing at home alone!
September Blues? - September 2, 2008
Beware September! Historically, September has been the worst month of the year. The average gain is a -1%. Typically this was the time when mutual funds cleaned house. It has also been the tail end of summer. For whatever reason, and we can make up a lot of reasons, September is a month for caution.
For those who are following our market timing strategies, you will want to be very neutral this month until we have more clear direction. We currently are about 22% net long but many of our long positions are in high dividend producing stocks and closed end funds. We still have short positions in the S&P 500, the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq. In addition, we have shorts on the emerging markets, Asia and China.
We are striving for absolute returns. We want to end the year on a positive note. After an abysmal year, we are settling back with 30% in closed end funds like NLY, ZTR, IGR, CHY, and EOS.
Active portfolio management is tough right now so be very careful as we go into September. If today is any indication, we could be in for a few rough days!
300 Point Dow Days - August 18, 2008
Keeping Up with the Times? - July 24, 2008
The internet is a resource of unlimited potential. Not being able to access the internet in today’s world is like not knowing how to read. Instead of an access point, it becomes a barrier between you and the rest of the world. Even getting a job at many places requires you go online to access the application. And as it turns out, John McCain does not know how to use the internet. When it comes to the internet McCain said, “I’m an illiterate who has to rely on his wife for any assistance he can get.” When the New York Times asked McCain about the internet he said his aides “go on for me. I will have that down fairly soon, getting on myself.”
Should our next president be able to use the internet by himself? Since the mainstream media is so selective with the news it thinks Americans should have access to, the internet is the one place average citizens can still speak for themselves. Personally, I think the president ought to be able to go online and hear the individual voices of our country…at a minimum. You know… because of the whole democracy thing.
How many people in the same age group as McCain are
online illiterates? John McCain is 71-years-old. According to the
I think being able to access and navigate the internet should be required if you are to run for president. Or perhaps that is short sighted. Rather, to be president you should have to prove that you are keeping up with the times. That seems an important trait for our country’s leader.
