We now have a new President, the 44th
in our short history as a nation. It could not have come at a better or
worse time depending on how you view it. Mr. Obama has a tough road
ahead but seems to be energetic enough that perhaps he can start some
things moving. I say worse because the speed and rapidity with which
the world economies are plunging is not good. We wish him well and pray
for all the wisdom, patience and fortitude necessary during these
troubling times.
Things
are truly astounding as we watch the banking system move into round
two. This is not an isolated problem; we spread to our greedy bank
friends around the world. Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS Bank), the
venerable, old, staid and previously solid bank, just announced a $41
billion dollar loss. These numbers are starting to get so enormous that
most of us common folk simply cannot relate. We think there is a very
good chance that banks as we know it will give way to a system of
national banks with the taxpayer picking up the tab. As long as banks
are shaky it will be very hard if not impossible to jump start our
economy. The same is true for the housing market.
Europe
is having some severe problems in the banking area. The Bank of England
just announced plans to buy toxic assets to the tune of $74 billion.
Denmark has announced a bank rescue plan as well. Ireland nationalized
the Anglo Irish Bank and is now rumored to be in talks with the IMF
(International Monetary Fund). It seems that this may have been too big
for the faltering Irish government to handle which will put pressure on
the Euro.
Spain
is the first nation to lose its AAA status since Japan in 2001. They
are the second country this year to be downgraded. Greece was
downgraded last week. Ireland and Portugal will most likely suffer
downgrades soon. The Ukraine is projected to default on its debt very
soon. Only the turning on of natural gas by Russia has been good news
this weekend.
In
Asia, China announced an increase in unemployment for the first time
since 2003. Right now it is 4.2% and is expected to go to 4.6% by the
end of the year which would be the highest since 1980. Electricity
consumption actually rose and there is some evidence that housing is on
the rise. China's biggest problem is they need 8% GDP growth each year
just to accommodate graduates and new people entering the workforce.
This will not happen this year and 5% growth may be all they can muster
which is not good news. Over 100,000 factories have closed in the past
year, a truly staggering number.
In
one of the most chilling statements of recent weeks, South Korea
suggested that this is time to sell U.S. Treasury bonds. Asia is the
region most responsible for financing our past spending spree. They do
it by not demanding money but by taking treasury bonds as an I.O.U. Now
they want to get paid. China and Japan may need to cash in the not too
distant future. This would be a disaster for interest rates which would
skyrocket.
There
are very few economic reports due this week. The only one of
significance is the Housing Starts for December. In November they were
down 18.9% and will most likely be down this month. We don't see any
uptick to speak of until some of the inventory is cleared out. Right
now, there are much better deals buying bank-owned foreclosures. Why
build and pay full price when you can get a home at 50% to 60% off.
And
finally, there is the weekly unemployment numbers. The amount of
layoffs is simply mind staggering. Firms are firing the help quickly as
demand has rocketed decidedly downward. As we progress through the year
we will be seeing more businesses lose staying power and fold up. We
think we will have unemployment go from 7.6% to around 10% a number not
seen since 1982. This is what needs to be stimulated and Washington
knows it. Now we can only hope that things will not be delayed too much
as the politicians scramble to cover their "debts and obligations" to
the lobbyists and fund raisers who are the first in line for a bail-out!
We leave you with this quote:
"Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter" Martin Luther King, Jr.
This change of administration marks a new day and one that
all Americans should embrace as an opportunity, a privilege and a duty
to make our voices known as we seek hope and peace for our country.